French winemakers, already struggling with a decline in their market, remain uncertain about the harsh impact that US wine tariffs will have on their industry.
In the southwest of France, near the renowned vineyards of Bordeaux, months of discussions about what US President Donald Trump will do regarding tariffs have become a nightmare for producers, who watch helplessly.
The United States remains the leading export market for Bordeaux's wine, generating 400 million euros ($470 million) in yearly sales — approximately 20 percent of the total.
China is ahead with 300 million euros, while the United Kingdom has 200 million.
The statement made on Sunday regarding a trade agreement between the United States and the European Union did not resolve the question of what duties European wine and spirit manufacturers will encounter in the United States.
Although Trump mentioned that European exports would be subject to a 15 percent tariff uniformly, both parties stated that there would be exceptions for specific industries.
EU leader Ursula Von der Leyen stated that the union still aimed to achieve additional "zero-for-zero" deals, particularly concerning alcohol, which she hoped would be resolved in the near future.
Philippe Tapie, head of the regional traders' association Bordeaux Negoce, which encompasses over 90% of the wine business in the Bordeaux region, is concerned about the instability.
"One day, it is white, the next it is black — the US administration can reverse its position from one day to the next, and we lack clarity," he said to AFP.
In late March, Trump had warned Brussels about imposing 200 percent taxes on alcoholic beverages as a reaction to an EU plan to tax American bourbon.
Then, in April, he issued a new warning of a 20 percent general increase on EU goods, a warning that was eventually put on hold.
Since then, the rate was initially set at ten percent, but in late May, the US leader warned of returning to 50 percent before shifting to 30 percent starting August 1st. This was the deadline for talks with the EU, which resulted in a provisional agreement following a meeting between Trump and Von der Leyen in Scotland on Sunday.
Unpredictability is found in wine, truth.
At 10 percent or 15 percent, we will discover remedies. At 30 percent, not at all. That's the end of the matter," Tapie cautioned before the announcement, as he criticized a "completely unpredictable American administration.
To ship wine, "there is a minimum of 30 days by sea. If you go to California, it's 60 days. We can't think in terms of weeks," states Tapie, who claims he has "never encountered such a situation" in his 30 years of experience.
Bordeaux Twins, a prominent wine dealer in Bordeaux, also expresses concern over the tariffs' effects.
"The U.S. market accounts for roughly a third of our revenue, approximately 30 million euros," says Sebastien Moses, co-director and co-owner of Twins, which typically sends over a million bottles annually to the United States.
Since January, "our sales have likely decreased by 50 percent from last year," he states.
"So far, we have managed to stabilize the situation, as soon as Donald Trump was elected, we predicted this and sent as much inventory as possible to the US," says Moses, although he acknowledges that in the long run, this is not a 'sustainable' approach.
Fly it out?
As a makeshift solution, Twins Bordeaux even transported batches of approximately 10,000 bottles via air in March.
"But only extremely costly wines, priced at a minimum of 150-200 euros per bottle, as transporting them by air increases the cost by at least two and a half times compared to sea shipping," he said.
For the Bordeaux wine merchant Bouey, the US market accounts for under 10 percent of its exports.
"It has been a long time since we started expanding geographically. Confronted with global instability, business strategies can no longer rely on a single or dual-country approach," Jacques Bouey, the company's CEO, stated to AFP in April.
The taxes arrive as the sector is already facing challenges from reduced demand, which has resulted in excess supply and a drop in bulk prices.
By the beginning of 2023, one-third of Bordeaux's roughly 5,000 wine producers acknowledged facing challenges.
"We're beginning to excel in the art of accumulating issues," complained Tapie.