China's development of a large dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo has caused concerns in India regarding water supply, farming, and regional stability.
China began constructing a large dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo river near the disputed border with the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh — which Beijing also claims — earlier this month at a ceremony attended by Chinese Premier Li Qiang.
It has caused concern in India due to the environmental dangers and the possible control it provides China over water flow into northeastern India and Bangladesh.
The projected $170 billion (€147.4 billion) hydroelectric initiative is designed to produce 300 billion kilowatt-hours of energy each year, mainly supplying electricity to different regions across China and fulfilling local needs in Tibet. This project exceeds the output of the massive Three Gorges Dam, which is currently the biggest in the world.
Certain specialists and ex-diplomats think the dam could reignite hostilities between India and China, even though there have been indications of a tentative progress in their relationship, like discussing border issues.
Longstanding border dispute
The two countries have blamed each other for attempting to take land near their de facto border, referred to as the Line of Actual Control (LAC), with India stating it spans 3,488 kilometers (2,167 miles) and China claiming it is shorter.
Following years of conflict, both nations havenew initiatives to restore diplomatic ties.
In January, both parties reached an agreement to restart flights after almost five years. Three months later, India and China's special envoys chose to proceed with further steps byresuming journeys and cross-border commerce.
Nevertheless, the dam initiative brings about a significant new fault line, as the ecological transformations in the region are anticipated to lead to various geopolitical and environmental challenges concerning habitats and population dynamics throughout the lower Himalayas.
India views the Expert Level Mechanism (ELM), a bilateral data-sharing system, as insufficient considering the magnitude of the dam project, as the ELM primarily shares information during the monsoon season, when flooding poses a significant threat.
"In the long term, as India claims, it will not only retain nutrient-rich sediments essential for soil fertility in Assam and Bangladesh, thus impacting irrigation," said Aravind Yelery, an associate professor at the Centre for East Asian Studies at Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University, to zaia news.
The dam will "also affect crop production and agricultural efficiency, and endanger aquatic environments," Yelery noted.
According to Yelery, the transboundary rivers and China's method of unilaterally modifying the riverine environment is harmful both environmentally and in terms of international relations.
Could there be a danger of water being overused?
"From a legal standpoint, China is pursuing a criminal-like path by avoiding its duty to maintain river flows because of geopolitical goals," stated Yelery, noting that this has already significantly influenced India's strategic approach in border discussions.
China adopted a comparable position regarding the Mekong River, emphasizing control upstream by building multiple dams. Since the mid-1980s, China has constructed 11 major dams on the Mekong (Lancang), with additional ones in progress.
"China has not signed any riparian agreements with its neighboring countries, despite controlling the headworks of most major rivers in Asia," said Atul Kumar, a China expert and fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, to zaia news.
"Beijing has taken a comparable position in the Yarlung Tsangpo issue and has kept India and Bangladesh unaware of these dam initiatives. Even the exchange of hydrological data, a seemingly innocuous technical aspect, typically relies on bilateral relations and has frequently been inaccessible during times of tension," stated Kumar.
A comment from Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, stating that the project "will not cause any adverse effects on downstream areas" during a press conference last week has drawn doubt.
Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu described the Chinese mega dam project as a ticking "water bomb" and an existential threat that is a far bigger issue than the military threat.
'Downstream destruction'
"The problem is that China cannot be trusted. No one can predict their actions," Khandu said to the news agency PTI, emphasizing that China is not part of the international water agreement that might have required it to follow global standards.
Kumar also expressed worries about the dam's potential for collapse, stating that "it would always be a time bomb for regions downstream in northeast India and Bangladesh."
"In the unstable and earthquake-vulnerable Himalayas, a natural disaster, conflict, or even sabotage could lead to widespread destruction in the downstream regions," said Kumar.
Former diplomat Anil Wadhwa advocated for a collaborative approach and stated that China needs to reveal information regarding the dam's storage capability, water flow rates, and design layout after the construction is finished.
"It is imperative that India takes all defensive measures in Arunachal Pradesh by constructing its own dam at the earliest," Wadhwa told zaia news.
The local opposition must be compensated, and maintaining open dialogue with the impacted community can prevent the situation from escalating, as has occurred with other large-scale projects in the country.
The same view was expressed by former diplomat Ajay Bisaria, who said to zaia news, "Considering China's recent history of using economic interdependence and trade as a political instrument, India should expect China to turn the waters into a weapon."
"Although China's readiness is clear, its ability and technical viability remain to be determined. To reduce this risk, India should take the initiative in evaluating and simulating the worst-case scenario," Bisaria concluded.
Edited by: Keith Walker
Author: Murali Krishnan (based in New Delhi)