Escalating Tensions in Tigray: A Region on the Brink
Tensions are mounting in Tigray, with growing concerns about the possibility of renewed conflict. The situation has become more alarming following recent statements by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who warned Parliament that "if it starts, it will not be what we knew before; things will deteriorate." His remarks have sparked significant backlash from civil society groups, religious leaders, and political figures in the region.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has accused the federal government of continued aggression and failure to uphold the Pretoria Agreement. They argue that threats of war will not suppress what they call "the just cause of the Tigrayan people." Adding to the uncertainty, a former president of the Tigray interim administration, now leading a new party, has raised concerns about a potential "unholy alliance" between the Eritrean regime, elements within the TPLF, and factions in the Tigray Armed Forces. He claims this alliance could signal the start of another conflict.
Despite these ominous signs, the voices of ordinary Tigrayans remain clear and consistent: they want peace, not more political maneuvering or war. Suzan Tsegay, an 18-year-old waitress in Mekelle, who had to leave school during the war, says, "The wounds from the past war haven't healed... All I want now is peace."
In the Kedamay Weyane market area, Henok Tesfamariam, a 25-year-old shoe repairman, criticizes both regional and federal leaders. "We hear speeches and see handshakes, but nothing changes in our lives... If peace truly matters to them, they should come and live here with us for a week." For many like Tsehay Gebremedhin, a 40-year-old mother of four who lost her husband in the war, politics no longer holds any significance. "We want water, food, and safety for our children. We still sleep in fear."
From grieving mothers to unemployed youth, there is a shared sentiment of disillusionment with the political leadership on all sides. Girmay Abebe from Adigrat states, "There is no hope left for Tigray... Our leaders didn't know how to stop the war. They only care about their own survival." Getnet Berihu from Axum echoes this sentiment: "Abiy promised peace and delivered war. Now he's threatening more. Even our own leaders are playing political games instead of protecting us."
As rhetoric intensifies and political divisions widen, residents across Tigray are once again bracing for the worst, while desperately clinging to the hope that, this time, peace might prevail.
The Devastating Impact of the Two-Year War
The two-year war in Tigray has been described as one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century. According to a report by the non-profit Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), the war in Ethiopia, which was the third deadliest in 2021, became the most deadly conflict globally in 2022. This year recorded the highest battle-related deaths from state-based conflicts since 1984, with over 100,000 fatalities.
While the exact number of casualties has not been officially disclosed by either the Ethiopian government or the TPLF, former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who served as the chief mediator of the war, estimated that the conflict may have resulted in as many as 600,000 deaths.
The war forced many Tigrayans to flee their homes, with thousands seeking refuge in Sudan. They settled in camps such as Um Rakuba and Tunaydbah in eastern Sudan. Nearly a million internally displaced persons (IDPs) across the Tigray region are about to endure their fifth rainy season in displacement camps. A recent report by the Ethiopia Emergency Shelter and NFI Cluster highlights that over 760,000 IDPs are living in increasingly precarious conditions.
Gender-Based Violence and Lasting Trauma
The conflict also led to widespread gender-based violence. A 2023 report indicates that between 40% and 50% of Tigrayan women and girls experienced gender-based violence during the war, with over 80% of victims reporting rape. Nearly 70% of these cases involved gang rape by armed groups, and more than 120,000 women were estimated to have been sexually abused between 2020 and 2022.
Residents of Tigray continue to live with the painful memories of destruction and loss. There is a growing sense of distrust and exhaustion among the population. "We've lost too much already," said Suzan. "We don't want to lose more."